Marcus Startup Advisor · Advisory framework
Start with the commitment
A founder can be choosing a technical platform, preparing a raise, and interviewing salespeople at the same time. Those tasks are connected by an underlying question: what evidence would justify the next meaningful commitment of time, capital, or ownership? Write that commitment in one sentence. “Hire two salespeople” is a commitment. “Show that someone other than the founder can sell to this customer segment” is the proof it may depend on.
Separate the evidence from the story
List what you have observed directly. Then record what you infer from those observations. A customer renewing a paid contract is evidence. The belief that a new segment will behave the same way is an assumption. Neither needs to be hidden, but they should not occupy the same column in a decision memo.
Find the earliest unresolved dependency
If customers do not yet experience a recurring problem, a conversion experiment may be premature. If the problem is established but delivery costs are unclear, more demand will not answer the viability question. Work backwards from the proposed commitment until you find the first dependency that lacks support.
Choose a bounded experiment
A useful experiment names the customer, the behaviour being tested, the threshold for proceeding, and the time or money you are willing to spend. Set those conditions before seeing the outcome. Otherwise an ambiguous result can become permission to continue indefinitely.
Make room for a different decision
The possible outputs are proceed, change the approach, stop this path, or gather missing evidence. A stopped experiment can preserve capital for a better opportunity. The success criterion is an informed decision, not a permanently green roadmap. Do not hire or build beyond what the evidence currently supports.
Your next decision
Write down the proposed commitment, evidence, assumptions, and the smallest next proof. Choose a threshold before running the experiment.