02 / EVIDENCE & VALIDATION
Turn assumptions into evidence before the commitment gets expensive.
Evidence and validation test the assumptions that could make an idea, product, commercial model, or investment case fail. The strength of evidence should match the size and reversibility of the next commitment.
The phases give the work structure, but the process is iterative. New evidence can change the strategy, what gets built, and what happens next.Research → Test → Learn → Adjust
THE DECISION
Are the important assumptions credible enough to justify the next investment of time, capital, ownership, or reputation?
DIRECT ANSWER
What counts as real validation?
Real validation is evidence of behaviour or commitment that directly tests an important assumption. Opinions and stated interest can help shape a test, but actions, payment, repeat use, retention, and measurable commercial signals generally carry more weight.
WHAT NEEDS TO BE UNDERSTOOD
Start with the uncertainty behind the decision.
- Which assumptions create the greatest risk for the next commitment
- What observable behaviour would support or weaken each assumption
- Which test can produce useful learning without overbuilding
- What result would change the decision rather than simply add data
ASSUMPTIONS TO RESOLVE
Make the claims visible before acting on them.
- Customers experience the problem strongly enough to act
- The proposition changes behaviour, not only stated preference
- The solution can create willingness to pay or another meaningful commitment
- Early signals can persist beyond novelty, incentives, or founder relationships
WHAT MARCUS HELPS WITH
Shape the work around the decision.
- Problem and customer validation
- Proposition, demand, and landing-page tests
- Prototype, usability, and MVP testing
- Pricing and willingness-to-pay tests
- Evidence-gap mapping and experiment design
WHAT YOU MAY RECEIVE
Useful outputs, not a fixed package.
Depending on the decision, the work may include:
- A prioritised validation plan
- Defined tests and decision criteria
- Experiment and behavioural results
- An evidence map with material gaps
- A recommendation for the next decision
WHAT GOOD EVIDENCE LOOKS LIKE
Evidence must fit the claim.
The useful hierarchy runs from opinions and stated preferences towards behaviour, commitment, payment, repeat behaviour, retention, and measurable traction. The hierarchy is contextual, but stronger evidence usually comes from what people do when a real trade-off is present.
WHO THIS WORK SERVES
The phase is shared. The context is not.
Founders use validation before product and capital commitments. Investors and VC teams use customer and commercial evidence review to test the credibility of an opportunity. Premium brands use evidence to test propositions, experience changes, and market response.
WHAT JUSTIFIES THE NEXT COMMITMENT
Move forward when the assumptions behind the next commitment are supported strongly enough for its cost, risk, and reversibility.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
Use the evidence to choose a direction, set priorities, and define what would change the decision.